College Hoops Final Four Predictions

I like to wait until after Thanksgiving tournaments (now pegged "Feast Week" by ESPN) to make Final Four predictions. This gives me a chance to see the top teams against other top talent, so they are theoretically more informed predictions. I watched a lot of basketball during the first two weeks and the competition has been very good so far. Lots of exciting games and juicy upsets. Last night was no different with both #7 Tennessee falling to #15 Texas and #8 Indiana falling to unranked Xavier.

So with further adieu, here are my predictions for this year's final four teams.



North Carolina
Assuming Ty Lawson's ankle injury is not serious, this team should ride into the Final Four without a scare. They are loaded from top to bottom. Most of the scoring from last year returned and they arguably have the best Forward and Point Guard in the country in Tyler Hansborough and Lawson, respectively.

They have gotten great guard/wing play this season from Wayne Ellington, Marcus Ginyard and Danny Green. They have other solid front court players in Deon Thompson and Alex Stephenson. And finally they have outstanding depth at all positions. Barring major injury problems, this team seems a lock for the FF.



UCLA
Stacked team number 2! The Bruins have looked outstanding early this season and have been playing without Darren Collison, their team leader and PG. Collison is a Junior with playing experience in two Final Fours. They are 6-0, but with one scare from Michigan State which was leading for nearly the entire game against UCLA. However, with the return of Collison this team should be easily earn a #1 seed and a trip to the Final Four.

Freshman Kevin Love is outstanding and has exceeded incredibly high expectations averaging 19.3 ppg and 10.5 rpg. Several of the Bruins have been on two Final Four teams, including starters Josh Shipp, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute and Alfred Aboya. Soph. Russell Westbrook (with the basketball and flames carved into his hairline) has been very good filling in for Collison and should see playing time at both guard spots with Collison's return.

Okay those were the easy ones, now it gets a bit more uncertain. However, I am going off the main prediction trail for my two other Final Four teams:



Michigan State
MSU returns all 5 starters and get great senior leadership at Guard in Drew Neitzel. For Final Four runs, experienced leadership at guard is critical and you will see that leadership in all four of my FF teams. Neitzel averaged over 18 ppg last year and has averaged just under 15 so far this year. The real standout so far this year has been sophomore wing Raymar Morgan, who has averaged over 17 ppg and 8 rpg. He had a very good freshman campaign and has started an outstanding sophomore campaign. I don't think we will see a Junior redux for Morgan as the NBA comes calling.

The front court is very solid rotation with Sr center Naymick and junior forwards Goran Suton and Marquise Gray. Travis Walton and two freshman, Kalin Lucas and Chris Allen have rotated at the guard positions and are averaging a combined 17 ppg and 7.8 apg. They played very well against UCLA and led most of the game before losing the lead down the stretch. However, this should be a confidence booster that they can play with anyone. The key with this team will be to maintain the intensity against weaker teams, which hurt them in several losses last year.



Duke
This may be a surprising choice given the teams flaws in the front court, however they played outstanding in Maui and I think they are set to surprise come tourney time. Duke is loaded with talent with 8 McDonald's All American's on the roster. Freshman sensation and leading scorer, Kyle Singler, is the real deal averaging 15.8 ppg and 6.6 rpg over 5 games. Only Brian Randle, the outstanding Illini defender, has been able to hold Singler under 10 points in a game.

The team has experienced guard play with both Greg Paulus and DeMarcus Nelson starting or playing significant minutes over the past three years. Add in standout sophomores Gerald Henderson and Jon Scheyer and the guard/wing spots for this team are outstanding. It will be tough for teams to keep the three starting players, Nelson, Henderson and Singler, in check. They all drive to the basket well, they can all shoot from outside or mid range. You will have to pick your poison to stop and hope the other two do not blow up.

Given the lack of a great Center/Forward at the 5 spot, Coach K has decided to play an uptempo game and use his depth to stay in transition as much as possible. This should prevent teams from beating them up inside. However, one could see in the Illinois game that they will have to improve inside play as Illinois outrebounded them 41-31 and got 22 offensive boards. They need the sophomore combination of Lance Thomas and 7'1" Brian Zoubek to step up by tourney time.


There are several top teams that I did not select and this is a brief explanation of why they were not included:

Memphis
Memphis is undefeated at 6-0 but has not played any Top 25 teams yet. This team is loaded with talent and Derrick Rose is a very good offensive freshman. However, Calipari's "driving motion" offense resembles streetball to me. I think this team plays out of control and a well coached team with strong defenders should take advantage of their lack of discipline.

Because their schedule is weak, they should get a #1 seed and likely make the Elite Eight again because of their seeding. However, I do not see them beating any of my FF teams or several other well coached teams.

Kansas
Every year Bill Self has more talent than 99% of the other college teams, but like clockwork they miss the Final Four. I am not sure why, but I do not think this team will break precedent.

Marquette
I think Marquette has a serious shot at making the Final Four. I would call Marquette my 5th team for the FF. They return their backcourt including the outstanding Dominic James. James could put the team on his back during tourney time and carry them to the FF. Jerel McNeal and Wesley Matthews are also outstanding guards.

The only potential weaknesses I see with Marquette is their intense defensive pressure. While this will win a lot of games against weaker teams, the top teams will be able to handle the pressure. But they play so "in your face" that they get called for a lot of cheap fouls. They bump and hand check too much and you could see it in the Duke game where the Eagles were called for 27 fouls to Duke's 15. Some might see that a Duke foul bias, but the reality is they were just too close to players all the time and very jumpy (reaching and grabbing) - yes it causes some turnovers but at the expense of a lot of fouls.

Georgetown
Not enough information in here. They have only played 3 games against weaker teams. They have some good returning talent, but it is yet to be seen if they can replace the scoring from last year's leading scorer, Jeff Green.


Clearly the season is shaping up to be a lot of fun. There are a couple teams that standout near the top but any of 5-8 teams could win it all. Should be fun!!