7 Observations from the Tourney and Final Four Predictions

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It has been one of the most memorable NCAA tournaments that I can remember with lots of upsets, cinderella stories and great individual performances. Here are 7 observations from the tournament so far.

1. Time to rethink the concept of Big 6 conferences in college basketball.. It used to be that the National Champion would always come out of a Big 6 conference with just a few exceptions. However in the last 5 years, a mid-major has made the Final Four in 3 of those years and this year we have two. I also think that the winner of the VCU/Butler game has an excellent chance of winning it all. It is time to throw the old bracket picking methodology out the window because the mid-majors have arrived and they are here to stay.

2. Maybe the One and Done Rule is not so bad. I have been a big opponent of the one and done rule because it seems to have made recruiting a "dirtier" sport. And while I still believe there is more cheating and "handlers" as a result of the one and done rule, I think it is actually creating more parity in the college game. While the superpower schools still get the best talent each year, they are starting younger and younger teams. I am a firm believer that it is nearly impossible for a team full of freshman to win the NC. It just doesn't happen. Kentucky will once again test that theory in the Final Four this year, but you will see by my picks below I am not banking on them to break the trend.

3. Basketball is the greatest sport in the world -- What I have always loved about college basketball is the strategy and "runs" that teams go on within a game. In football, it is very difficult for a team full of 3 star talent to beat a team full of 5 star talent -- let alone do it 6 times to win a NC. However, that can and does happen consistently in college basketball. A well designed strategy and severe hustle can often overpower a more talented foe. Strategies such as the full court press, excellent 3 point shooting or trapping half court defense can rattle more talented teams and lead to victory. VCU has proven it in 5 games during the tournament, each against a team from 5 different Big 6 conferences.

4. Kemba and the NBA Draft. If Kemba Walker actually goes 17th or 18th in the NBA draft as currently projected, I predict there will be at least 10 teams that will later regret that they passed on him. In other words, I can only see 8-9 guys that you should legitimately select before Kemba Walker. He is a winner that can score, pass and rebound. He can create his own shot and has lights out range. Yes, he is short at 6'0'' but don't let it deceive you GMs or you will regret it.

5. We should cut down the conference schedule by 3 games and add 3 more non-conference games. The inter-conference games are so much fun and help get a clearer read on the strength of each conference. This year, more than any other in recent memory proves that we do not have enough inter-conference games between top teams. Everyone, including me, thought the Big East was the dominant conference and it just was not true.

6. A Mid-Major could win the National Championship this year. Do not for a minute think that VCU or Butler could not win it all. I think VCU has a better shot than Butler but either one could do it. VCU's disruptive style and three point shooting make them a very difficult out in the tourney. I have watched them play in four of the tourney games and they are just a joy to watch.

7. NBA Skeening. Hmm, Can you think of any pro teams that would like a 6'9" Forward that plays smothering defense, hustles constantly and also shoots 40% from 3 point land (50% in the tourney)? Jamie Skeen has averaged 15.6 ppg and about 7 rebounds per game. He isn't currently projected to go in either round of the draft, but I am sure many teams will be eyeing Jamie after this tournament run!!

Alright now it is time for my picks. Well, I am sticking with UConn to beat Kentucky to make it to the Championship game where they will face VCU. I think UConn is on a mission, their 12 tournament "sudden-death" wins this year is just unbelievable and I expect it to continue for two more games. I think UConn will win a close one over the very scrappy VCU team in a very entertaining championship game.