Bam - Week Sixteen's Poll Becomes Irrelevant

No sooner had Week 16's Blogger Poll been posted and it become irrelevant with Tennessee's loss last night to Vanderbilt. That must be the shortest reign at Number 1 in hoops history -- less than 24 hours.

The race to a National Championship remains wide open with at least 8 teams that have a legitimate shot at winning it. I believe those ten are (in my order of probability):

North Carolina
UCLA
Duke
Memphis
Georgetown
Texas
Kansas
Tennessee

Yes you are correct, I do not believe there is a Big Ten team with a legitimate shot of winning it all. And while there are a lot of good teams in the Big East, only Georgetown looks capable of stringing together 6 wins (and that may be a stretch).

College Basketball: Who's Hot & Who's Not

Time for a mid-season assessment and a little who's hot and who's not. We all know that Memphis, Kansas, UNC, Duke, Tennessee and UCLA are playing great basketball, but what lesser known schools are making some waves and who has cooled off relative to expectations.

Who's Hot

UConn - I have been talking about UConn for a couple weeks now. Yes they have 5 losses but they are playing great basketball right now. Their losses include #1 Memphis, #9 Georgetown (on a last second 3 pointer) and Gonzaga. This win in Bloomington over #7 IU is very impressive.

Vanderbilt - I don't remember Vandy being in anybody's Top 25 to start the season, but here we sit deep into the season and the Commodores are 17-2 and one of those losses is to #3 Tennessee. Their best wins are against unranked teams so they still have something to prove, but they have impressive wins over Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, DePaul and UMass. This week's games against Florida and Mississippi and the 2/26 rematch with UTenn will be real tests for Vandy's true grit.

Xavier - They have wins over #7 IU, #14 Dayton, Kansas State, Auburn and Virginia. Their losses include #3 Tennessee and #25 Arizona State. At 16-4, they look like a lock to be dancing this year.


Who's Not

Dayton - In the past 10 days, the Flyers have lost to UMass, Xavier and Richmond. They also have an ugly early season loss to George Mason. Not a good trend for the Flyers.

The Big Ten - Tough year for the Big Ten, I could only find 5 wins by the conference over one of the top 4-5 teams from the other conferences. MSU is likely the only legitimate elite team in the conference this year. IU is one dimensional and it is unclear how good Wisconsin really is. Purdue is the surprise team in the conference, but it is hard to see this conference earning more than 4 spots in the tourney.

Texas A&M - The Aggies have been ranked as high as #10 this year but in the past 11 days, they have lost 3 times to unranked teams; Texas Tech, Kansas State and Baylor.

Villanova - The Wildcats were rolling in 2007 but 2008 has not been so kind to Nova. The cats have lost to 4 unranked teams in 08; DePaul, Cincy, Rutgers and Notre Dame. The Wildcats will have to turn it around to remain a tourney team by selection Sunday.

Mid-Season Transfer List Increasing?

Maybe I am getting old, but it sure seems like the list of high profile kids transferring mid-season is increasing - at least this year anyway.

December is always a popular transfer time because a recruit can play in January 12 months later if they enroll at the new school in January (so they only miss the non-conference play of the next year). Usually, the transfers are sophomores at BCS conference schools transferring to mid and lower DI schools for playing time.

This year though it seems there are some high profile freshman making transfers from one BCS school to another. As the internet speeds up the delivery of information and everything else we "need", maybe it is also creating more expediency in expectations of playing time for athletes.

The Alex Legion (Kentucky) and Lavel Lucas Perry (Arizona) were both very surprising freshman transfer announcements. Legion was a Top 50 recruit who was averaging 17 minutes and 6.7 points per game. Those are very good stats for a freshman, but maybe Alex is trying to compare himself with the fab freshman this year including Gordon, Mayo, Rose and Love. If so, he is in for a lot of disappointment as that is a tough group to hang with.

Lavel Lucas Perry was averaging 9.8 minutes and 4.0 points - again pretty good stats for a freshman, but he was in the shadow of freshman sensation Jerryd Bayless. Maybe that got under his craw or maybe he only went to Arizona because of Lute Olsen and he doesn't think he is coming back. In either case, it is a surprising transfer given the playing time and points he earned in the first five games.

This morning we learn that Casaan Breeden is transferring from Florida State. Breeden is a junior so after the transfer and sitting out a year, he will only have 1.5 years of eligibility remaining. Breeden was 2005 Mr. Basketball in South Carolina so he certainly had expectations for playing time and success at the DI level. This year he was averaging 14 minutes, 4.7 pts and 2.4 rebs per game - middle of the pack type stats. Seems like a disruptive move at this point in a college career.

This will be an interesting trend to watch in the coming years. For a full list of mid-season transfers check out the College Hoop Blog at Fox Sports

Season's Here! Get those Ankles Taped and check out these stories from the Blogosphere

First, you have got to check out Cody run. I know it is not basketball, but this is incredible. Thebiglead.com uncovers an amazing video of an 8 year old football player with silky smooth moves. You have never seen anything like this from an 8 year old, maybe not even from a high schooler.

Okay to basketball -- Does anyone remember Ronnie Fields? If you are from Chicagoland you might. He was the 3rd highest scorer in the Chicago Public Leagues, he was a teammate of Kevin Garnett but averaged more points per game than KG. He had an unreal vertical leap and was a constant highlight reel of drives and dunks. Unfortunately he never played a game in the NBA, learn about the tragic story (and more importantly watch the video) at fromcourtside.com

Get excited about the upcoming college hoops season with a Preseason Primer from STF.

Or for another approach to getting pumped up about hoops, learn more about the coaching elements of college basketball. Coach bruchu tells you all you need to know about UNC's secondary post in his latest thread.

Lastly, rushthecourt.com provides a nice overview of the ESPN Full Package for college hoops this season and helps you analyze whether you should purchase the package.

Around the Country for Midnight Madness

I plan to update this post throughout then next three days to accurately reflect the actual recruits that were on campus as several of the nation's top basketball programs. While attending MM at a certain school does not necessarily foreshadow a future commitment, it is an indicator of strong interest by the recruit since most programs run their Midnight Madness on the same night.

This list will ONLY include uncommitted recruits in attendance, since it is assumed any committed recruit will attend their respective school's MM. Exceptions will be edited in commitments that happen just prior to or at MM.

The following schools do not have a MM celebration scheduled; Florida and Ohio State. Syracuse, NC State and Villanova are having an event a week later but since they are not willing to compete with other schools for the recruits 'attention, I am not counting willing to count them in my list.

If a top basketball school is not listed, I could not find any information about who is visiting -- you are welcome to comment in anybody else you know.

Here is what I know so far (in alphabetical order by school and by year for recruits):

Arkansas
Brandon Moore (08) [edit: verbal commitment 10-14-07]

Boston College
Evan Ravenal (08) [edit: verbal commitment 10-13-07]

Connecticut
John Riek (08)
Assane Sene (08)
Kemba Walker (08)
Jamaal Coombs (09)
Alex Oriakhi (09)

couple of top rated prospects for 2009 in Oriakhi and Coombs and 2008's Riek is 7'2" - nuff said.

Georgetown
Gus Gilchrist (08)
Greg Monroe (08) [edit: verbal commitment 10-13-07]
Renaldo Woolridge (08)
Isiah Armwood (09)
Deshonte Riley (09)
Hollis Thompson (09)
Terrell Vinson (09)

GTown already has 3 strong commits for 2008 and this weekend will have up to 15 recruits on campus including 5 star 2008 recruit Monroe and 3 5 stars for 2009 and the son of former NBAer Orlando Woolridge.

Georgia Tech
Tyshawn Taylor (08)

Illinois
Joe Bertrand (09) - [edit: verbal commitment 10-11-07]
Marcus Jordan (09)
James Kinney (09)
Brandon Paul (09) - [edit: verbal commitment 10-11-07]
DJ Richardson (09) -[edit: verbal commitment 10-11-07]
Jordan Walker (09)
Lavonte Dority (10)
Anthony Johnson (10)

talk about momentum shift, with no verbals for 2008 -- Weber and gang grab three of the top players in Illinois for 2009 on the eve of MM; others expected to attend include two of top Illinois recruits from the class of 2010. I think the Champagne will be flowing in Champaign Friday night.

Indiana
Jordan Prosser (08)
Nolan Dennis (09)
Jacob Jenkins (09)
Kevin Jones (09)
Lance Stephenson (09)
Dexter Strickland (09)
Stephen van Treese (09)
Ray McCallum Jr (10)

impressive list that includes 3 5-star recruits for 2009 in Strickland, Stephenson and Dennis.

Kansas
Marcus Morris (08)
Markieff Morris (08)
Michael Dixon (09)
Jeff Reid (09)
Trevor Releford (10)

and the saga continues for the Morris brothers, after committing, decommitting, and reconsidering with Memphis, the brothers are now looking at KU, Villanova and St. Johns. They are attending KU's MM this week and Villanova's MM next week.

Kentucky
Verdell Jones (08)
J'Mison Morgan (08)
Ralph Sampson (08)
Chris Singleton (08)
Jon Hood (09)
John Wall (09)
JT Terrell (10)

after already gaining commits from three solid players for 2008 in Liggins, Miller and Fortson, they are keeping it rolling with more top recruits at MM including a 5 star for 2009.

Louisville (no midnight madness but a few recruits in town)
Terrance Jennings (08) [edit: verbal commitment 10-13-07]
Kyle Kuric (08) [edit: verbal commitment 10-13-07]

Marquette
Iman Shumpert (08)
Jared Swopshire (08)
Joey Brooks (09)
Erik Williams (09) [edit: verbal commitment 10-13-07]
Evan Anderson (10)

MU is hosting one of the few remaining 5 star prospect for 2008 in Shumpert

Maryland
Jin Soo Kim (08) [edit: verbal commitment 10-13-07]
Ater Majok (08)
Andrew Fitzgerald (09)

Memphis
Elliot Williams (08)
Xavier Henry (09)
Leslie McDonald (09)

MU is hosting one of the few remaining 5 star prospect for 2008 in Williams and a couple of 5 stars for 2009

Michigan State
Richard Howell (09)
Donovan Kirk (09)
Keith Appling (10)

North Carolina
Dominic Cheek (09)
Milton Jennings (09)
David Wear (09)
Travis Wear (09)
Kendall Marshall (10)
Julian Royal (11)

after securing two of the country's top 2 prospects in 2008, they are back with another solid list of prospects for MM including 5 star prospect Cheek.

Notre Dame
Tyler Zeller (08)

Oklahoma
Willie Warren (08)
Roger Franklin (09)

Southern Illinois
DeAndre McCamey (10)

Texas A&M
Jamal Branch (11) [edit: verbal commitment 10-15-07]

Wisconsin
Diamond Taylor (09)

Taylor is a very solid, under-rated SG for 2009.

Tournament Success by Conference

We hear so much talk about the strongest basketball conferences each year from the talking heads that I thought I would actually take a numerical look at the past 10 and 25 year periods. While there are many ways to measure success, the one clear objective measure that everyone agrees on is success in the NCAA tournament. I chose to measure the number of teams each conference put into the Final Four over the period of time in question.

[edit 10-21-07 - Reader poll results for 3rd best conference voting; 43% Big East, 32% SEC, 21% PAC-10 and 2% Big 12.]

Note: Several Final Four teams have jumped from one conference to another but in order to keep the statistics as accurate to the conferences success for that year, I have credited the conference for which that team played in the year in question.

First the facts -- here are the number of final four teams by conference for the period indicated.

Past 10 Years (1998 - 2007):
ACC 9
Big10 9
Big12 5
SEC 5
BigEast 4
Pac10 4
CUSA 1
Horizon 1
MtnWst 1
Atl10 0
Other 1
Total 40

Past 25 Years (1983 - 2007)
ACC 23
Big10 16
SEC 16
BigEast 12
Big12 11
Pac10 8
CUSA 7
MtnWst 4
Horizon 1
Atl10 1
Other 1
Total 100

Now the analysis...
Conference Ranks in order:

ACC
News flash, the ACC is the best and most consistently good basketball conference. No surprise there. However, one statistic did jump out at me from the analysis; during the 25 year period, the ACC only whiffed on the FF in 6 years! Basically, you can count on at least one ACC team in most FFs. In 4 of the 25 years, the ACC put half the teams in the FF. But really this is a story of two schools; a total of 17 of the 23 FF appearances from the ACC were made by Duke and North Carolina. That is quite a testament to those two schools and partly explains the Dickie V bias for schools from the Tobacco state.

Big Ten
The Big Ten is clearly the second best basketball conference during the periods as they were tied with the ACC during the past 10 years and tied for second with the SEC during the past 25 years. They were not as consistent as the ACC, missing in 14 of the 25 years, however they made up for it in density. In 5 of the 11 years that they put a team in the FF, they also put a second team in. The Big Ten's representation was balanced from a number of schools with the Spartans having the most appearances at 4.

SEC
During the past 25 years, the SEC was tied with the Big Ten in FF appearances, but surprisingly in the past 10 years they had fallen off. That is until the past two years when they accounted for 3 of the 8 FF teams and Florida's back to back championships. Clearly things are looking up again in the SEC. Kentucky has been the most frequent dancer with 5 FF appearances in the past 25 years.

Big East
The next two are very close between the Big East and the Big 12, while the numbers are almost identical I have to give the slight edge to the Big East. They had one more appearance over the 25 year period but more importantly they had balanced appearances (3 each from Gtown and Syracuse, 2 from Uconn and then 3 other teams made it), whereas the Big 12 had 5 of its 11 total appearances made by Kansas. During the 25 year period, the Big East is also the only conference that produced 3 of the FF in one year, 1985.

Big 12
As previously mentioned, Kansas has been the key contributor to the FF with 5 of 11 appearances, or 45%, during the 25 year period. In 3 of the 8 years that they put teams into the FF, they put 2 teams in including back to back double team appearances in 2002 and 2003.

Pac 10
The Pac 10 was next with 8 total appearances over the 25 year period. UCLA and Arizona were the real basketball powers from the Pac 10 representing 7 of the 8 appearances over the 25 year period. Stanford had the other lone appearance from the Pac 10.


Conference USA
Conference USA had a dominant period during the mid-1980s when 5 of their 7 total FF appearances occured. At the time Houston, Memphis and Louisville were all strong teams. Since that time only Cincinnati in 1992 and Louisville in 2005 had made it back to the FF. This conference has been decimated with the departures to the Big East and only Memphis looks like a serious contender to get back to the FF anytime soon.